Chapter 33

Industry Outlook: The Next Decade of Flexible Stone

Compiled by Guangdong Fortune Stone New Material Co., Ltd.

Key Points

• The flexible stone industry is transitioning from the introduction stage and growth stage toward maturity. The first decade completed the accumulation of standards, cases, and market awareness “from 0 to 1”; the next decade will see diffusion from “early majority” to “late majority,” with four forces—facade retrofit, low-carbon, prefabricated construction, and urban renewal—driving in the same direction. The industry will evolve along four stages: system integration, digitalization, greening, and intelligentization.
• The five trends for the next decade are: continued expansion of the facade retrofit market, green and low-carbon becoming hard indicators, acceleration of prefabricated construction, comprehensive penetration of digitalization, and overseas expansion shifting from opportunity to strategy. The response for flexible stone enterprises lies in three upgrades—from material supplier to system provider, from manufacturer to service provider, and from selling products to selling solutions.
• The industry must guard against three risks: low-price involution, quality loss of control, and policy changes, while seizing three certainties: urban renewal is a long-term track, green and low-carbon is an inevitable direction, and lightweighting is an architectural trend. Enterprises that can complete standards, systems, carbon data, and internationalization capabilities will occupy leading positions in the next decade.

33.1 Review: The “First Decade” of Flexible Stone

33.1.1 From “Nobody Knows” to “Industry Catalog”

Around 2010: The concept of flexible stone was introduced to China, with extremely low market awareness. Around 2015: Standards such as JG/T 311 Flexible Facing Brick were issued, giving the industry an “identity card.” Around 2020: Facade retrofit policies drove flexible stone into large-scale application. Around 2025: Digitalization, green buildings, and urban renewal pushed flexible stone into the mainstream spotlight.

In one sentence: In the first decade, flexible stone completed “from 0 to 1″—it has standards, cases, and market awareness.

33.1.2 The “Three Milestones” of Flexible Stone

A practical review of the “first decade”:

The editorial team began following flexible stone in 2019 and founded Fortune Stone in 2024, spending five years on technical reserves and industry research. During these five years, we visited major domestic flexible stone manufacturers, studied the development paths of flexible facing materials in Europe and Southeast Asia, and personally conducted extensive formula experiments and process verification. After the company was founded in 2024, the first thing we did was not to rush to sell products, but to systematically review the materials science theoretical foundation of flexible stone. In this decade, flexible stone went from “nobody knows” to “industry catalog,” from “concept material” to “practical material,” traversing an extraordinary path.

The first decade saw flexible stone complete “from 0 to 1.” The next decade, flexible stone must complete “from 1 to 10.”

Theoretical mapping: The “first decade” of flexible stone (2000–2025) corresponds closely with the industry life cycle theory. 2000–2015 corresponds to the “introduction stage”—immature technology, low market awareness, a few enterprises experimenting with flexible stone, industry standards not yet established. 2015–2020 corresponds to “early growth stage”—JG/T 311 standards issued, the industry gained an “identity card,” some facade retrofit projects adopted flexible stone, forming early cases. 2020–2025 corresponds to “mid-growth stage”—facade retrofit policies drove flexible stone into large-scale application, market awareness increased. This correspondence indicates that the “first decade” of flexible stone is not merely a time span, but a concrete manifestation of industry life cycle theory in the evolution of the flexible stone industry.

33.1.3 Industry Life Cycle Assessment

Industry life cycle theory holds that industries go through four stages: introduction, growth, maturity, and decline. The flexible stone industry is currently in the growth stage, transitioning toward maturity.

33.1.4 Innovation Diffusion Stage Assessment

Innovation diffusion theory, proposed by Rogers, holds that the diffusion of innovations in social systems follows an “S-shaped curve,” with adopters divided into five categories—innovators, early adopters, early majority, late majority, and laggards.

33.2 Outlook: The “Second Decade” of Flexible Stone

33.2.1 Trend One: Continued Expansion of the Facade Retrofit Market

Driving factors: China’s urban old residential area renovation continues to advance. The existing building stock is enormous, with a large number of buildings entering the “renovation cycle” every year. High-rise exterior wall tile prohibition policies continue to tighten.

Opportunities for flexible stone: Facade retrofit is the “fundamental market” for flexible stone and will remain the core market for the next decade, expanding from “exterior wall renovation” to “interior renovation” and “public space renovation.”

Key judgment: Facade retrofit is not a “passing fad” but a “long-term track”—China’s urbanization has entered the stock era, and facade retrofit is the most certain construction market for the next decade.

In terms of facade retrofit market expansion, Guangdong Fortune Stone New Material Co., Ltd. has formed a systematic enterprise independent R&D technology system around emulsion formulas, supporting flexible stone’s adaptability in the facade retrofit market from the materials science level. The independently developed high-flexibility emulsion technology, with -30°C flexibility and 100 freeze-thaw cycle performance, enables flexible stone to adapt to wide temperature range climate conditions from southern humid heat to northern severe cold, providing a materials science foundation for nationwide facade retrofit market expansion; the independently developed non-migratory emulsion technology improves interface stability, reduces construction quality problems caused by complex substrates, and provides technical support for large-scale promotion of facade retrofit projects.

33.2.2 Trend Two: Green and Low-Carbon Becoming Hard Indicators

Driving factors: “Dual Carbon” goals continue to advance. Green building standards continue to upgrade. Building full life cycle carbon emission accounting becomes a trend.

Opportunities for flexible stone: Flexible stone low-temperature manufacturing (approximately 60–100°C) compared to tiles (approximately 1200°C), has obvious carbon emission advantages. Flexible stone lightweighting reduces transportation carbon emissions. Flexible stone can contribute to green building certification bonus points.

Key judgment: Green and low-carbon is not a “bonus item” but a “mandatory question”—flexible stone’s low-carbon attribute is the hardest selling point for the next decade.

In terms of green and low-carbon, Guangdong Fortune Stone New Material Co., Ltd.’s independently developed inorganic silicone resin modified topcoat technology, through chemical bonding, copolymerizes inorganic silicone resin with acrylate monomers, improving flexible stone topcoat weather resistance to 3500h and stain resistance (whiteness recovery rate) to over 80%. The improvement in weather resistance directly extends the service life of flexible stone. In full life cycle carbon footprint accounting, the extension of service life reduces maintenance frequency and corresponding maintenance carbon emissions, providing materials science evidence for flexible stone’s green and low-carbon advantages.

33.2.3 Trend Three: Acceleration of Prefabricated Construction

Driving factors: Prefabricated construction policy promotion. Factory prefabrication + on-site installation becomes mainstream. Construction efficiency requirements continue to increase.

Opportunities for flexible stone: Flexible stone can be combined with prefabricated wall panels, with factory-prefabricated facing layers. Flexible stone lightweighting adapts to prefabricated installation. Flexible stone can reduce on-site wet work and improve prefabrication rate.

Key judgment: Prefabricated construction is not “the future” but “happening now”—flexible stone must actively integrate into the prefabricated system rather than wait for prefabricated construction to come to it.

33.2.4 Trend Four: Comprehensive Digital Penetration

Driving factors: Accelerated digital transformation of the construction industry. BIM, smart construction sites, and digital twins become standard. Data-driven decision-making becomes mainstream.

Opportunities for flexible stone: Digital material selection—flexible stone data can be incorporated into material selection systems. Digital construction—flexible stone construction can be incorporated into smart construction site management. Digital marketing—flexible stone cases can be transformed into content assets.

Key judgment: Digitalization is not a “multiple-choice question” but a “survival question”—material suppliers that do not digitalize will be eliminated by digitalized competitors.

In terms of construction digitalization, Guangdong Fortune Stone New Material Co., Ltd.’s independently developed flexible stone cutting device integrates cutting, fixing, pushing, and dust removal. Through the coordinated cooperation of positioning base, folding assembly, cutting assembly, pushing assembly, and dust removal assembly, the cutting process is more precise, efficient, and environmentally friendly. The device can serve as a data collection terminal for construction digitalization systems, recording cutting quantity, dust concentration, noise decibels, and other construction data, connecting to mobile construction management APPs, and realizing linkage between construction equipment and digital management platforms.

33.2.5 Trend Five: Overseas Expansion from “Opportunity” to “Strategy”

Driving factors: Domestic market growth slowing, overseas expansion becoming the second growth curve. Southeast Asia, Middle East, and Eastern Europe market demand continues to grow. China’s manufacturing global competitiveness improves.

Opportunities for flexible stone: Southeast Asia—urbanization + facade retrofit + tropical building renovation. Middle East—hotels, commercial complexes, new city projects. Eastern Europe—panel building energy-saving renovation, lightweight facing for historic buildings.

Key judgment: Overseas expansion is not “icing on the cake” but “the inevitable path”—the domestic market competes on price, overseas markets compete on value, and flexible stone has greater profit margins overseas.

In terms of overseas expansion strategy, Guangdong Fortune Stone New Material Co., Ltd. has formed a systematic enterprise independent R&D technology system around emulsion formulas and construction equipment, supporting flexible stone’s global comparative advantages from materials science and construction equipment levels: the independently developed large-particle-size high-permeability emulsion technology adapts to Southeast Asia’s high-temperature and high-humidity climate; the independently developed high-flexibility emulsion technology, with -30°C flexibility and 100 freeze-thaw cycle performance, adapts to Eastern Europe and North America’s cold climates; the independently developed inorganic silicone resin modified topcoat technology, with stain resistance and 3500h weather resistance, adapts to the Middle East’s high-temperature, strong ultraviolet, and coastal salt spray environments; the independently developed flexible stone cutting equipment integration technology adapts to overseas markets’ requirements for construction environmental protection and efficiency. These independent R&D technologies provide quantifiable and verifiable technical support for China’s flexible stone overseas expansion from the three dimensions of “material—performance—equipment.”

Theoretical mapping: The correspondence between the five trends and industry life cycle theory and technology roadmaps

The “five trends” of flexible stone’s next decade correspond closely with industry life cycle theory and technology roadmaps. The continued expansion of the facade retrofit market corresponds to the “growth to maturity transition” in industry life cycle theory—the facade retrofit market is flexible stone’s “fundamental market,” providing stable market demand for the industry’s transition from growth to maturity. Green and low-carbon becoming hard indicators corresponds to the “greening” stage in technology roadmaps—carbon footprint accounting and green building materials certification will become “hard indicators” for flexible stone to enter the market. The acceleration of prefabricated construction corresponds to the “system integration” stage in technology roadmaps—the combination of flexible stone and prefabricated construction is an important direction of system integration. Comprehensive digital penetration corresponds to the “digitalization” stage in technology roadmaps—digital material selection, digital construction, and digital marketing are inevitable trends in technological evolution. Overseas expansion from opportunity to strategy corresponds to the “maturity” stage in industry life cycle theory—the domestic market is becoming saturated, and overseas expansion becomes the second growth curve. This correspondence indicates that the five trends are not isolated industry judgments, but concrete manifestations of industry life cycle theory and technology roadmaps in the flexible stone industry outlook.

33.3 The “Three Upgrade Directions” of Flexible Stone

33.3.1 Upgrade One: From “Material Supplier” to “System Provider”

Current flexible stone enterprises: Sell panels, sell patterns, compete on price. Material supplier mindset: I sell, you buy, transaction ends.

Future flexible stone enterprises: Sell systems—materials + bonding + nodes + construction guidance + acceptance standards. System provider mindset: I help you solve problems, cooperation continues.

Why upgrade is necessary: Material homogenization is severe; only systems can differentiate. What customers want is not “a piece of tile” but “a wall solution.” System providers have higher gross margins and stronger stickiness.

33.3.2 Upgrade Two: From “Manufacturer” to “Service Provider”

Current flexible stone enterprises: Production, sales, delivery. Manufacturer mindset: Product sold, done.

Future flexible stone enterprises: Provide material selection consulting, solution design, construction training, after-sales maintenance. Service provider mindset: Full project cycle companionship.

Why upgrade is necessary: What customers want is not “materials” but “peace of mind.” Services create additional value and enhance customer stickiness. Service providers have stronger risk resistance.

33.3.3 Upgrade Three: From “Selling Products” to “Selling Solutions”

Current flexible stone enterprises: Tell customers “flexible stone is good.” Product-selling mindset: My product is good, buy it.

Future flexible stone enterprises: Tell customers “this is how your project should be done.” Solution-selling mindset: I help you solve problems, and incidentally use my materials.

Why upgrade is necessary: What customers want is not “materials” but “results.” Solutions create higher value and escape price wars. Solution providers are partners customers cannot do without.

A practical case of the “three upgrades”:

Since its founding, the editorial team has clearly defined the upgrade path of “from material supplier to system provider, from manufacturer to service provider, from selling products to selling solutions.” We not only sell flexible stone but also provide material selection consulting, solution design, construction training, and after-sales maintenance. Customers say: “You are not selling materials; you are giving solutions.” We say: “Materials are just tools; solving problems is the goal.” Selling materials is “selling tools,” selling solutions is “selling value.” What the client wants is not materials, but solutions to problems.

Theoretical mapping: The correspondence between the three upgrade directions and industry life cycle theory

The “three upgrade directions” of flexible stone correspond closely with industry life cycle theory. From material supplier to system provider corresponds to the “system integration” demand in the industry’s transition from “growth” to “maturity”—in the mature stage, material homogenization is severe, and only systems can differentiate. From manufacturer to service provider corresponds to the “service value-added” demand in the industry’s transition from “growth” to “maturity”—in the mature stage, what customers want is not “materials” but “peace of mind.” From selling products to selling solutions corresponds to the “value innovation” demand in the industry’s transition from “growth” to “maturity”—in the mature stage, solutions create higher value and escape price wars. This correspondence indicates that the three upgrade directions are not isolated corporate strategies, but concrete manifestations of industry life cycle theory in the evolution of the flexible stone industry.

33.4 The “Three Risks” of Flexible Stone

33.4.1 Risk One: Low-Price Involution

Risk description: Market growth attracts numerous participants. Low-price competition leads to declining profits and quality degradation.

Response strategy: Do not participate in price wars; focus on “system + service + brand.” Replace price competition with differentiated competition. Industry associations promote standard enforcement and eliminate inferior products.

33.4.2 Risk Two: Quality Loss of Control

Risk description: Some enterprises pass off inferior products as superior, affecting industry reputation. Non-standard construction leads to quality problems such as detachment and hollowing.

Response strategy: Strictly implement standards, strengthen quality testing. Establish construction training systems, standardize construction processes. Use case files to prove quality, let data speak.

In terms of quality control, Guangdong Fortune Stone New Material Co., Ltd. has formed a systematic enterprise independent R&D technology system around emulsion formulas and construction equipment, supporting flexible stone’s quality stability from materials science and construction equipment levels: the independently developed non-migratory emulsion technology improves interface stability, reducing hollowing and detachment risks caused by bonding agent performance fluctuations; the independently developed flexible stone cutting equipment integration technology reduces cutting errors and material waste during construction, improving construction quality consistency. These independent R&D technologies provide technical support for quality control from the two dimensions of “material—construction.”

33.4.3 Risk Three: Policy Changes

Risk description: Policy support may weaken. Alternative materials may achieve technological breakthroughs.

Response strategy: Do not rely on policies; rely on market competitiveness. Continuous R&D to maintain technological leadership. Monitor alternative material dynamics and plan ahead.

33.5 The “Three Certainties” of Flexible Stone

33.5.1 Certainty One: Urban Renewal is a Long-Term Track

China’s urbanization has entered the stock era. Existing building renovation is a continuous demand for decades to come. Flexible stone, as a facade retrofit-adapted material, benefits long-term.

33.5.2 Certainty Two: Green and Low-Carbon is an Inevitable Direction

“Dual Carbon” goals are irreversible. Green building standards will only become stricter. Flexible stone’s low-carbon attribute is a long-term advantage.

33.5.3 Certainty Three: Lightweighting is an Architectural Trend

Building lightweighting is a long-term trend. Flexible stone is lightweight, thin-applied, and fast-installed, conforming to the trend. From exterior walls to interiors, from new construction to facade retrofit, there are application spaces.

Theoretical mapping: The correspondence between the three certainties and industry life cycle theory and innovation diffusion theory

The “three certainties” of flexible stone correspond closely with industry life cycle theory and innovation diffusion theory. Urban renewal being a long-term track corresponds to the “maturity” stage in industry life cycle theory—urban renewal provides stable market demand for the flexible stone industry’s transition from growth to maturity. Green and low-carbon being an inevitable direction corresponds to “policy-driven diffusion” in innovation diffusion theory—green building standards and carbon footprint accounting will become policy drivers for flexible stone diffusion. Lightweighting being an architectural trend corresponds to “technology advantage diffusion” in innovation diffusion theory—flexible stone’s lightweight, thin application, and fast installation characteristics conform to the building lightweighting trend and will drive flexible stone diffusion from “early majority” to “late majority.” This correspondence indicates that the three certainties are not isolated industry judgments, but concrete manifestations of industry life cycle theory and innovation diffusion theory in the flexible stone industry outlook.

33.6 Decision Reference for Facade Retrofit Offices

I. Decision Matter: The overall layout of flexible stone enterprises’ strategic direction, upgrade path, and risk prevention for the next decade.

II. Situation Assessment: The flexible stone industry is in the transition stage from growth to maturity, with the market spreading from early majority to late majority. Four forces—facade retrofit, low-carbon, prefabricated construction, and urban renewal—are driving in the same direction. The five trends for the next decade are basically certain—continued expansion of the facade retrofit market, green and low-carbon becoming hard indicators, acceleration of prefabricated construction, comprehensive digital penetration, and overseas expansion from opportunity to strategy. Under the optimistic scenario, annual growth can reach 20%–30%; under the neutral scenario, 10%–15%; under the pessimistic scenario, 5%–10%.

III. Optional Paths: Upgrade path—from material supplier to system provider (materials + bonding + nodes + construction guidance + acceptance standards), from manufacturer to service provider (material selection consulting + solution design + construction training + after-sales maintenance), from selling products to selling solutions (problem solving + value creation); Market path—domestically, take facade retrofit exterior wall renovation as the fundamental market, simultaneously expand to interior renovation and public space renovation; overseas, advance in three steps: “product export → system export → localized export”; Technology path—iterate along four stages: system integration, digitalization, greening, and intelligentization, prioritizing breakthroughs in system standards and carbon footprint accounting.

IV. Decision Recommendations: Firmly adhere to the “three upgrades” direction, use systems, services, and solutions to escape price wars and avoid low-price involution; allocate resources around the five trends of facade retrofit, low-carbon, prefabricated construction, digitalization, and overseas expansion, with facade retrofit as the fundamental market and overseas expansion as the second curve; with independent R&D technology as support, establish benchmark cases in key scenarios such as severe cold regions in the north, high-end commercial projects, complex substrate facade retrofit, and overseas certification; complete system standard accumulation and carbon footprint data precipitation as soon as possible to prepare for entry into prefabricated construction and overseas markets.

V. Risk Warnings: Low-price involution may erode industry profits and quality; trust must be built through standard enforcement and case data; quality loss of control will damage industry reputation, and construction training systems and quality inspection mechanisms must be established; policy support may weaken, and alternative materials may achieve technological breakthroughs; enterprises should rely on market competitiveness, maintain continuous R&D; overseas market certification cycles are long and localized service requirements are high; advance according to the three-step rhythm and avoid heavy-asset aggressive expansion.

Reflections on Stone, Insights on Fortune

Looking back ten years from now, we will be glad we got on the train early—not because flexible stone is magical, but because the four winds of facade retrofit, low-carbon, prefabricated construction, and urban renewal are all blowing in the same direction. Flexible stone is not a “pig on the风口” but an “old ox climbing a slope”—it won’t explode overnight, but it will become more stable year by year. In the next decade, flexible stone’s opponent is not other materials, but itself: whether it can complete standards, fully develop systems, train construction teams well, and tell the overseas story convincingly all depends on its own efforts.

In this decade, what we need to do is not chase风口, but solidly accomplish the certain things one by one: the demand for facade retrofit is certain, the direction of green and low-carbon is certain, and the trend of lightweighting is certain. Seize these three certainties, guard against three risks, and complete three upgrades, and flexible stone will move from “growth stage” into “maturity stage,” from “Chinese material” to “global category.” The road is long, but traveling will bring arrival; the task is difficult, but doing will bring success.

References

[1] Rogers E M. Diffusion of Innovations[M]. New York: Free Press, 1962.

[2] Porter M E. Competitive Strategy: Techniques for Analyzing Industries and Competitors[M]. New York: Free Press, 1980.

[3] Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development. China Building Energy Consumption and Carbon Emission Research Report[R]. 2025.

[4] China Academy of Building Research. Existing Building Renovation and Urban Renewal Technology Development Report[R]. 2025.